RECENT PREDICTIONS
OVERALL
MONTH
09/97
08/97
07/97
06/97
05/97
04/97
03/97
02/97
01/97
12/96
11/96
10/96
09/96
08/96
07/96
06/96
05/96
04/96
03/96
02/96
01/96
TOTAL:
 PROBABILITY
80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
70% (14/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
79.29%
строительство под ключ 		PREDICTED
4.0
5.5
7.0
9.5
5.0
4.5
5.0
5.0
6.0
5.0
4.5
5.5
4.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
6.0
4.0
6.5
4.5
110.5
 HITS
3.0
2.5
5.5
7.5
3.0
1.5
3.5
3.0
4.5
3.0
3.5
4.5
1.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
4.0
3.0
5.5
2.0
73.0
 PERCENTAGE
94%
57%
105%
105%
86%
42%
82%
75%
94%
75%
97%
102%
47%
64%
71%
83%
94%
89%
100%
106%
56%
83%

#1 San Jose
MONTH
09/97
08/97
07/97
06/97
05/97
04/97
03/97
02/97
01/97
12/96
11/96
10/96
09/96
08/96
07/96
06/96
05/96
04/96
03/96
02/96
01/96
TOTAL:
 PROBABILITY
80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
70% (14/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)

Ibistic Faktura behandling 		PREDICTED
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
25.0
 HITS
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
1.0
3.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
11.5
 PERCENTAGE
00%
00%
133%
00%
00%
00%
118%
00%
00%
63%
63%
63%
00%
00%
118%
00%
125%
133%
133%
00%
00%
58%

#2 Los Angeles
MONTH
09/97
08/97
07/97
06/97
05/97
04/97
03/97
02/97
01/97
12/96
11/96
10/96
09/96
08/96
07/96
06/96
05/96
04/96
03/96
02/96
01/96
TOTAL:
 PROBABILITY
80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
70% (14/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)

Professional mexico extended stay department 		PREDICTED
1.0
2.0
4.0
3.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
2.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
2.5
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.5
1.5
35.5
 HITS
1.0
2.0
4.0
3.5
2.0
0.5
1.0
2.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
2.5
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1.0
1.5
1.5
31.5
 PERCENTAGE
125%
133%
133%
133%
143%
42%
118%
125%
125%
125%
125%
125%
125%
00%
59%
125%
63%
00%
133%
125%
125%
112%

#3 Washington/Oregon
MONTH
09/97
08/97
07/97
06/97
05/97
04/97
03/97
02/97
01/97
12/96
11/96
10/96
09/96
08/96
07/96
06/96
05/96
04/96
03/96
02/96
01/96
TOTAL:
 PROBABILITY
80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
70% (14/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)

 PREDICTED
1.0
1.0
1.0
4.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
24.0
 HITS
1.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.5
14.0
 PERCENTAGE
125%
00%
00%
133%
00%
125%
00%
125%
63%
63%
63%
63%
63%
59%
59%
63%
125%
00%
67%
125%
63%
74%

#4 Worldwide
MONTH
09/97
08/97
07/97
06/97
05/97
04/97
03/97
02/97
01/97
12/96
11/96
10/96
09/96
08/96
07/96
06/96
05/96
04/96
03/96
02/96
01/96
TOTAL:
 PROBABILITY
80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
70% (14/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
85% (17/20)
85% (17/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)
75% (15/20)
75% (15/20)
80% (16/20)
80% (16/20)

 PREDICTED
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.5
1.0
1.0
2.5
1.0
1.5
1.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
1.0
25.5
 HITS
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
1.0
0.0
1.5
1.0
0.0
2.5
0.0
1.5
0.5
1.0
0.5
3.0
0.0
16.0
 PERCENTAGE
125%
63%
67%
00%
143%
00%
59%
00%
125%
00%
125%
125%
00%
118%
00%
125%
63%
133%
67%
125%
00%
79%
Explanation
Earthquakes of .1M within windows score .5 Hits. Earthquakes of proper magnitude which fall within hours + or - score .5 Hits. Earthquakes of 3+M which are within the window and are the greatest within the month score .5 Hits. Earthquakes exceeding the minimum magnitude but just outside the region score .5 Hits.
Multiple earthquakes within a window score 1 Hit and register 1 prediction, or .5 Hits and .5 predictions.
FORMULA: (HITS / PREDICT) / PROBABILITY
SITEMASTER'S NOTE: Scoring of close calls was done by me, in a way that I deemed as fair. If you have any difficulty with the method, please email me, Will Fletcher with your concerns. Thank you.
Talk to Jim Berkland
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sitemaster Will Fletcher
18973