Editor: Jim Berkland
1175 Chauvet Rd. Box 1926
Glen Ellen, CA. 95442
(707) 935-6512 FAX (707) 935-6639
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Editor: Jim Berkland 1175 Chauvet Rd. Box 1926 Glen Ellen, CA. 95442 (707) 935-6512 FAX (707) 935-6639 |
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12 Monthly Issues Back issues $4.00 |
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Geologist |
Hello Folks:
I've got a Christmas present for all of my readers. To anyone who subscribes
or re-subscribes by December 31, 1997 (postmark date), I will add an
extra TWO months to your subscription. This applies even if your current
subscription doesn t expire until 1998 or 1999. The reason is not
completely altruistic. I am trying to increase my cash flow because
following my retirement and my recent move to the Valley of the Moon,
expenses have mounted and, for the first time in many years, I have
been unable to pay off my credit accounts on a monthly basis. Just
like everyone else, I hate those non-deductible interest charges.
Let me suggest also that this would be a good opportunity for you
to make a gift to some friend or relative living in a seismically active
area and give them SYZYGY for 14 months, rather than 12 months
for the old cost of $40.
In the last issue my predictions for a quake of 3.5+M scored in Washington
with the strongest quake since my June window, when a 3.9M event hit
south of Yakima on November 17th. In the Los Angeles area there was
a 3.6M near Lake Isabella on the second day of the November 12-19th
Seismic Window. This makes my 1997 record for Southern California 11
out of 12 (92%) and the only miss was by 0.2 magnitude. In the San
Francisco Bay Area there was a 3.4M near San Juan Bautista on November
16th and a sharp 3.2M on the Hayward Fault, near Union City on November
19th. These qualify as the next ring out from a bullseye. World wide,
through November 22nd, there have been 14 major quakes, of which 11
were in a seismic window (78%), although chance would allow 50 per cent.
Next year we are in for some unusually strong gravitational periods,
and because of water-loading from El Nino, the probabilities for strong
earthquakes are enhanced. (See the El Nino section on my website:
http://www.syzygyjob.com ) I believe that the baby should
already be called El Hombre because of the early severe storms in North
America (and flood devastated areas, such as in Somalia.)
Although some of my critics have called me a fear-monger and I nearly
lost my job as Santa Clara County Geologist for predicting the World
Series Quake and supposedly ..causing panic in the public... , I don
t consider my work as mongering fear, unless you consider a meteorologist
in the same light. I maintain that the most important aspect is an
individual s record, and secondarily, the means and the motivation.
Last month I spoke to a junior high school science class in Sebastopol
and it was very enjoyable to see the bright young faces of the future
and to hear their well-considered questions. I advised them that in
science, as well as in most fields of study, there were three outstanding
characteristics shown by those on the path to success: (1) Curiosity,
(2) Perseverance, and (3) Skepticism.
As a current example I am extremely skeptical about Global Warming,
as there are highly conflicting data. If it is real, I am skeptical
about its supposed causes. Too often people in power use that power
simply because they can and a sufficient number of believers will allow
them to retain that power (and the money that goes along with it.)
I never became a geologist for the money.
After I had presented an early paper about Plate Tectonics at the International
Geological Congress (Montreal, 1972), I met outside the meeting hall,
James Gilully, former Chief Geologist of the U.S. Geological Survey.
He said, Berkland, that was a good talk....a damned good talk. You
know, you could be right! I understand that, coming from Jim Gilluly,
this was mighty high praise, and I treasure his words to this day.
That is the kind of reward I seek. At that same Congress I attended
a symposium which dealt with world climate and projections for the future.
There were desk-pounding emotions expressed by eminent experts about
whether we were heading into another Ice Age or still leaving the last
one. Often the same data were called upon to prove opposing arguments.
I came away with a completely open mind on the subject, and 25 years
later, I still am unconvinced about global cooling or global warming.
One factor is that the last glacial stage, the Wisconsinan, lasted
essentially from about 70,000 years BP (Before Present) to about 11,000
years BP. However, it was broken by an interstadial period from 40,000
to 30,000 years BP during which time conditions were warmer than those
of today.
The post-glacial climate of the past 11,000 years has been marked by
extremes such as the warm interval of Scandinavian exploration from
about 950-1250 AD that yielded to the Little Ice Age from about 1300-1650
AD, when many glaciers expanded. This contrasted strongly with the
warm Climatic Optimum of 8200 to 5300 BP, when there was very little
ice left across the northern hemisphere.
Other variations in world climate have been identified with much more
clarity than the current one of Global Warming. There was increasingly
mild temperatures from 1880 to 1940, but then what caused the obvious
cooling from 1940 to 1965?
Probably similar variations in the Antarctica Ozone Hole could have
been identified if we had been able to measure it over the last 11,000
years. I am skeptical.
Also for a quick skepticism list, do you associate past official and
unofficial scams like, Remember the Maine , Understated death toll from
the 1906 earthquake, Fall-out shelters, the U-2 incident, Warren Commission
Report, the Bay of Tonkin attack, the Far-East Domino effect, Agent
Orange, Project Blue Book, Roswell weather balloons and parachute dummies,
the Attack on the Liberty , the Jupiter Effect, Swine Flu shots, Watergate,
White Water, The Man Who Saw Tomorrow , Radon gas and chrysotile asbestos
scares, Alar, New Math, look-say reading, the gasoline shortage, Gulf
War Syndrome, Ruby Ridge, Waco, Vince Foster suicide , Ron Brown Plane
Crash, TWA Flight 800, Smog Check II and reformulated gas, pole shift,
May 5, 2000?
These are some of the scams and cover-ups that I am familiar with, most
of which have had personal ramifications. I am sure that I have included
some that you would not agree belong on the list; also, I may have overlooked
some that are important to you; however, this is just intended to illustrate
past justifications for being skeptical.
And the same applies to some of what you read in SYZYGY. I try to separate
fact from hypothesis and give probabilities for predictions that, by
definition, are rarely beyond question. Whenever you hear predictions
from anyone, you must use your personal filter of skepticism, created
by your own experiences and knowledge. From my standpoint, I ask you
to remember, The proof of the pudding is in the shaking, and not in
criticizing the recipe.
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JEST FOR FUN
Recent headlines have brought to my mind an item I submitted to the
S.F. Chronicle's late columnist, Herb Caen, during the build-up to Desert Storm.
He liked it enough to include it in his column (one of 5 items he used
from me over the years).
The Tigris-Euphrates rivers..... Eden......Home of the first man, Adam
..... And the worst man, Saddam.
It works best using ex-President Bush's pronunciation, Sad am,
which he deliberately chose because, as I recall, it means Son of a shoemaker,
and he wanted to dis the Iraqi leader.
For a more up-to-date bit of humor, just today I saw a ragged hedge
which had been crudely shaped into the form of a dog? a pig? or maybe
a bear. I hope that the erstwhile lawnmower man was Irish, because
he might better appreciate my comment:
Your hedge work is interesting, but it's a long way to topiary.
Ow!.....Please put down those clippers.
QUOTE OF THE MONTH
For this month's quotation I call upon Dr. Frank Press and a citation
by Henry Spall, USGS geophysicist, and former editor of the now defunct
publication of the Department of the Interior, EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANOES,
(V. 2, No. 5, 1990.)
Dr. Press, as President of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, had
urged a United Nations designation of the 1990 s as The Decade for Natural
Disaster Reduction.
Part of his closing remarks follow: ".......Hazard prediction and
warnings are also crucial to hazard reduction, with a great potential for
reducing the loss of life.
Progress in the science and technology of hazard reduction offers us
a unique opportunity to break the cycle of mounting losses at the hands
of nature. Important advances in coping with natural hazards are within
the grasp of every nation if a global effort is mounted. The issue
is not primarily money; rather, it a willingness to face up to the risk,
to apply knowledge in hand, and to pioneer further advances in hazard
reduction.
Dr. Press expressed the hope for progress during the 1990 s. How far
have we come?
Severe cutbacks in personnel and project funding for the USGS have
emasculated the once promising programs for hazard reduction. Even
with the threat of the greatest El Nino in history we have cut down
weather satellite launches, eliminated Pacific buoy stations, consolidated
weather stations, and threatened to dismantle the West coast headquarters
of the USGS at Menlo Park. Where can we point to break-through successes
in this decade? However, I still take pleasure in the most im-Press-ive
quote from Dr. Press, as it essentially captures the purpose of SYZYGY.
There is no higher calling for a scientist than to use his or her
technical knowledge to improve the public welfare.
How can you get a nonpayer off of your house deed if partners not husband and wife?
SOUND ADVICE
This section is intended mainly for my many subscribers around Puget
Sound, but the general principles apply to any area of active seismicity
(or volcanism.) Currently my area of chief concern is that near Mammoth
Lakes, on the central California/Nevada border,
where there has been an unprecedented series of 1000's of swarm earthquakes
since July 1997. This activity reached a crescendo during the third week of
November, with more than 500 small quakes being recorded in 24 hours on several
occasions. The magnitudes remained below 4.0 until November 22nd, when
there were four of 4.5-4.8M and thirty of more than 3.0M. Also the
gradual swelling of the surface of the Long Valley Caldera had amounted
to about two inches in three months, when suddenly the elevation rate
increased on November 22nd to a level that completed the loop and the
U.S. Geological Survey reported to the Associate Press (later denied)
that the level of concern was increased from "green" to "Yellow Watch,
Intense Unrest". (This is considered to happen only once per decade.)
It is possible that continuing phenomena will required a further increase
to "Orange Warning, Eruption Likely," (which is expected to
happen every few hundred years.) 'The Red Alert' is only
reached when an eruption is underway, (again expected at Mammoth only once
every few hundred years.)
Without intensified activity, each official notification of volcanic
unrest is kept in effect for 14 days and then drops back to the preceding
plateau.
Each increasing condition requires higher levels of monitoring, higher
levels of official response and higher degrees of urgency communicated
to public. This is a logical approach and should minimize unnecessary
panic and economic consequences to volcanic areas, which are typically
very scenic and often depend upon tourism and recreation for economic
survival.
Clearly, levels of volcanic unrest should be coordinated with, but not
exceeded by, social unrest. Prompt and effective communication is
the key to achieving this co-ordination. Politics, egos, individual
goals and pedantry can never be eliminated, but must be minimized during
these periods of crises or the best of hazard planning can be negated.
Days prior to the reported U.S.G.S. announcement of a Yellow Watch ,
I had predicted on Los Angeles radio station KPFK (Kathy Gori Show)
that I felt there was a 50% chance that by the end of the year there
would be a 6+M quake at Mammoth and a 10% chance of a volcanic eruption
of some type (at least a phreatic, or steam, eruption.)
With subsequent developments of the next few days, and knowledge of
extreme tidal conditions coming next February, March and April, I expanded
my prediction to:
By the end of April 1998 I predict for Mammoth Lakes that there is
an 80% chance for a 6+M quake, and/or a 20% chance for some type of
volcanic eruption,( subject to upgrading as events develop.)
This may seem too conservative by some, but there has been no 6M earthquake
at Mammoth in eleven years, and there has been no volcanic activity
in the region for at least 250 years. The cataclysmic blast which
created the Long Valley Caldera dates back 760,000 years, and that monstrous
event is not likely to be repeated.
Back in March 1980 a PBS television crew was interviewing me for a
segment of THE INVISIBLE----EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANOES. I was
asked what I thought of Mt. Saint Helens, which one week earlier had been
shaken first by a 4.3M quake, and then a couple of smaller ones. "I
said, I think that volcano means business. I would give it a 50% chance
to erupt this year, and become the first active cone in the 48 conterminous
states since Mt. Lassen erupted between 1914-17."
When we came down from the mountains that afternoon of March 27, 1980,
we learned that Mt. Saint Helens had just erupted for the first time
since 1857.
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PLANNING PLOYS
As George Santayana said so many years ago: "Those who cannot remember
the past are condemned to repeat it." Past events play a very important
role in all of my predictions, as things that have happened before are
likely to happen again. (Just when is the main issue.) Let me
thank volcanic hazard planner, Janet Tanaka for sending me some data from
the recent past. She writes her own newsletter, Volcanic Quarterly,
which is extremely readable, current, and informative. For
subscription information, contact her at P.O. Box 405, Issaquah, WA 98027-0405
{FAX (425) 391-7980}
Janet sent me her copy of the Quarterly Network Report 97-B
of the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Geophysics Program, Box 351650,
Univ. of Wash., Seattle, WA 98195-1650. This report summarizes Washington/Oregon earthquakes during the second quarter of 1997. I found it so useful
gon earthquakes during the second quarter of 1997. I found it so useful
that I will have to subscribe myself, especially since it is free.
On Table 4 are listed all of the sixteen earthquakes that were felt
in the Northwest between April 1 through June 30, 1997. If the past
is the key to the present (and the future), let us see how my Seismic
Window Theory fits the facts.
The first Northwest quake of 1997 to reach 3.5M occurred near Seattle
on February 9th during my Feb 6-13th window. At that time I told reporters
that the next critical period would be about June 22nd, during my June
20-27th Seismic Window. No quakes reached 3.5M in Washington during
March, April or May, but on May 3rd there was a 3.1M near Concrete,
WA during my May 3-10th window. Also there was a secondary window
associated with the May 22nd Full Moon. On that day there were two
felt quakes measuring 2.3 and 2.6M near Eugene. The three strongest
Northwest quakes of the year (through November) occurred on June 23-24
during my June 20-27th window, as shown on the following table showing
all of the 14 quakes listed by PNSN Quarterly Rept. 97-B:
Only five of these quakes exceeded the 3.5M minimum of my predictions
and ALL five were in the specified June window. The next Washington
quake to exceed 3.5M was in the window of November 12-19, 1997, when
a 3.9M hit south of Yakima on Nov. 17th.
Northwest Felt Earthquakes, April 1-June 30, 1997
Date
Magn.
Epicenter
Full Moon+
Perigee+
New Moon+
May 3
3.1
Concrete, WA
May 18
3.2
Bellingham
May 22
2.3
Eugene, OR
May 22
2.6
Eugene, OR
June 13
3.1
Vancouver, B.C.
June 14
2.6
Darrington
June 23
4.9
Bremerton
June 23
3.6
Bremerton
June 24
4.6
Okanogan
June 24
4.6
Vancouver, B.C.
June 24
2.6
Bremerton
June 26
1.2
Bremerton
June 27
3.1
Bremerton
June 27
3.9
Bremerton
Bold: 64% in predicted Seismic Window + Italics: 14% in
secondary window= 78% fit.
These kinds of data do not prove the validity of my Seismic Window
Theory, but they do demonstrate favorable evidence. I have been accumulating
such evidence for 24 years and many other researchers long before me
have provided abundant additional evidence for the correlation between
maximum tidal forces and the maximum probabilities for quakes.
Not only do I thank Janet Tanaka for the impetus to present this table,
but I also thank her for the following excellent, but untitled, poem
about human limitations. I might suggest for a title,
BLIND PROGRESS.
SEISMIC SENTRIES
(Pet of the Month)
The winner of this months blue ribbon award as a Seismic Sentry is presented
posthumously to Brownie, a friendly mix of Lab and German Shepard
owned for some 15 years by Ken and Eleanor Santos of San Jose. Brownie
would hold a point toward the epicenter of an impending quake. On
other occasions she would be noticeably uneasy a few days before an
event, such as the 6.2M Morgan Hill earthquake of April 24, 1984 on
the Calaveras Fault. During that time, the Santos couple had heard deep
booming noises similar to those caused by blasting in an Idaho mining
camp where they had lived at one time. Their Santa Clara County home
is within 1/2 mile of the Calaveras Fault, and within 10 miles of the
epicenter of the so-called Morgan Hill quake on that fault.
On another occasion Brownie disappeared from their home most of a day,
which was very unusual. They split up and drove north and south in
a search for their beloved Brownie. Ken said about two miles away after
one of his whistles, he heard a faint response from far up a canyon.
Brownie came reluctantly to him but seemed very apprehensive. That
night a 3.8M quake on the Calaveras Fault shook their home.
An interesting sidelight is that Brownie lost her sensitivity to seismic
phenomena after an attack of heartworm. Her reaction to the drastic
medication was very severe, but she did survive for a few more years,
during which time earthquakes no longer seemed to affect her. We all
have our priorities.
QUAKE OF THE MONTH
For December the quake of record occurred near Kansu, China on December
16, 1920, not far from where a 7.7M quake hit on November 12, 1997 in
Tibet. The Great 1920 earthquake was one of history s worst disasters,
rated at 8.6 magnitude, and resulting in more than 180,000 deaths.
It caused destruction over 15,000 square miles, and was felt over one-and-one-half million square miles. The major characteristic of this earthquake
lf million square miles. The major characteristic of this earthquake
was overwhelming landslides, Hills that walked , that covered villages.
Ten cities with mainly stone buildings were destroyed by shaking.
Cave-dwellers were crushed or smothered and many roads were obliterated.
At least 20,000 additional deaths resulted from earthquake survivors
with no shelter who soon froze to death in the harsh winter of the mountains.
It was on the last day of a Seismic Window, 6 days after the new Moon.
LAST MONTH'S EARTHQUAKES
The Seismic Window of November 12-19, 1997 was quite successful, especially
for the Washington and Southern California predictions. South of Yakima
a 3.9M quake hit on November 18th. This was the strongest in Washington
since the June window, when there were three quakes of 4.6 to 4.9M in
the north state. In Southern California there was a 3.6 on Nov. 15th,
marking my tenth hit in eleven tries for that area this year. In the
S.F. Bay Area, also on Nov. 15th, my prediction came very close with
a 3.4M shaker at San Juan Bautista. In addition there was a 3.2M surprise
near Union City on Nov. 19th that was sharply felt along the Hayward
Fault and as far away as Pleasanton and San Francisco. A significant
quake hit beyond the 140 mile radius east of San Jose on November 14th.
It measured 5.3M and was centered near Deep Springs, about 60 miles
S.E. of Mammoth Lakes. There were no major quakes anywhere during
the November window, but one of 6.6M hit the Vanuatu Islands in the
Ring of Fire on November 15th. The fifteenth major quake this year
hit Indonesia (also in the Ring of Fire,) well after my window closed,
with a 7.1M event on Suluwesi Island on November 24th.
QUAKE PREDICTIONS FOR DECEMBER
The Seismic Window for December 13-20, 1997 is based upon the Full Moon
of December 13-14th and the highest tides since last February on December
13th, when the Golden Gate tidal range will reach 8.0 feet. By comparison,
at that time the tides at Puget Sound will be twice as high, and the
range at Anchorage, Alaska, will be an amazing 35.9 feet. This window
is bracketed by two other tide-raising forces, the lunar perigee on
December 9th and the winter solstice on December 21st. As pointed
out by oceanographer/geophysicist Fergus Wood: "An increase in the
combined lunisolar diurnal forces by about 33 percent at the syzygies
near the solstices results in tides of greater diurnal inequality, amplitude,
and range known as solstitial tides." (Tidal Dynamics,
D. Reidel Publ. Co., 1985, p. 149) In his foreword to that book,
Gordon Lill, the Deputy Director of the National Ocean Survey wrote: "But
curious and open-minded geophysicists are beginning to examine the connections,
if any, between earth tides and earth movements, especially microseismic
swarms." I might add that "curious and open-minded" geologists
are doing the same.
For the Window of December 13-20, 1997, I am predicting an 80% chance
for an earthquake of 3.5-5.5M to hit: (1) within 140 miles (two degrees)
of San Jose, CA; (2) within 140 miles of Los Angeles; and (3) within
140 miles of Seattle, WA. In addition, with equal confidence, expect
a major event of 7+M within the Pacific Ring of Fire, where more than
three out of four major quakes occur.