The Mammoth Prediction and Information Page; By: Jim Berkland

The Lion Sleeps Tonight
The Volcano Page

Growing controversy and Data:

Mammoth Strain, Leveling EVIDENCE!!!

The Mammoth Prediction:
1) A 6+M Earthquake will occur before the end of April 1998, with a confidence of 75%. (NOTE: a 3 in 4 chance)
Several 5M's, about a doven 4M's, hundreds of 3M's, and thousands of 2M's, but no 6+M. Result 0-1 at 80%.

2) An Eruption, possibly just phreatic(Steam) will occur prior to the end of April 1998, with a confidence of 20%. (NOTE: a 1 in 5 chance)
No Eruption of any sort reported. Result 0-1 at 20%.

Current:
Mammoth surface swelling continues though seismic activity has been steadily decreasing since early January 1998. Focii depth has somewhat stablized at about 7.6km on average also. SITEMASTER NOTE: I went up there during a time that I'd determined would be quiet, based on past activity cycles observed relating to the New and Full Moon phases. It was quiet, and never came back to the activity levels prior to my visit. I'll be dieting soon!

Additional Notes:
Not just Mammoth, but the whole Sierra seems to be bouncing now. It is starting to get interesting.
James Berkland has noted that, the volcanic windows fill in the gaps between seismic windows and often overlap by a day or two. Six of seven of the major St. Helens eruptions were between the Seismic Windows and the one big exception was the Big Blast of May 18, 1980, which was triggered by the 5.2M seismic event under the peak on that day.

Here is a note in answer to a question about Mammoth that came to the site in October of '98.
Jim Berkland; "I have been observing the same patterns at Mammoth Lake, and it seems the focii are getting shallower, which is a bit ominous. I know that the USGS is also carefully monitoring the activity there but are reluctant to talk much about it as they were badly burned in 1980-82, when they pointed out the possibility of an eruption, much to the dismay of the local ski resort operators and Chamber of Commerce.(Sitemaster Note: Jaws, Dante's Peak, etc...)
The geologists were not much appreciated, although they were just doing their jobs. With the current climate of el Nino, so-called Global Warming and the Ozone Hole, there is a limit to how much the public will take before becoming immune to real hazards.
If the CO-2 levels rise and the ground begins to swell, then I will have real concern and put out my own alert. Meanwhile I believe the current 3-month swarm of little ones is unprecedented, and the whole Sierra Nevada seems agitated from south to north.
I don't consider it totally coincidental that Mount Saint Helens blew in May of 1980 at the same time that the biggest 'recent' events of 6M+ shook the Mammoth Lakes area. Similarly, when the 7.5M Landers Earthquake of June 28, 1992 hit, there were Earthquakes triggered at Mammoth, Shasta, Lassen, Yellowstone, etc."

As of this Update:
U.S.G.S.'s official condition is Condition "GREEN".

A condition "Yellow Watch" on November 22nd was reported by the Associated Press but later denied by the USGS, although the criteria for the designation appeared to have been met.

An article by AP stated that "MAMMOTH QUAKES INITIATE YELLOW ALERT" ... On Sunday, Dave Hill, the U.S. Geological Survey's chief scientist for Long Valley, was investigating the latest spate of volcanic activity, which registered a high of 600 Earthquakes Nov. 17, and more than 2,000 temblors in the past week. A condition yellow watch was called on Saturday, meaning there was intense geological unrest. The condition yellow is called when earthquake swarms have at least one magnitude-5 Earthquake or there is evidence of magma movement and ground deformation.

Mammoth Info Links

Long Valley caldera Current Condition
Map and Graphs of last 72 hours of activity
Mammoth Area Recent Earthquakes Map(High resolution)
Mammoth Area Recent Earthquake Map
U.S.G.S. Main Mammoth Site
Long Valley Area Link Page from CVO
Long Valley Caldera Continuous GPS Network, JPL
Description: Long Valley Volcanic Area, CA from CVO
Long Valley Area, Images
USGS CO2 Emission Report
Smithsonian Institution, Bulletin Reports for Long Valley
Fantastic Mammoth Alert Page, large amount of unique stuff

Mammoth Travel Links

Mammoth Lakes Visitors Bureau
Mammoth Times, Online Newspaper
Some Mammoth Lakes Vacation Rentals
Mammoth Vacations Service

Other Volcano News and Information Sites
California Volcanoes and Volcanic Areas
Smithsonian Institution, Gorda Ridge Reports(ACTIVE)
May 1915 Eruptions of Lassen Peak

Cascade Range Volcanoes
Smithsonian Institution, Axial Seamount Reports(ACTIVE)
NOAA Axial Seamount Volcano Report 1998(ACTIVE)
Smithsonian Institution, Mt. Adams, WA Reports
Smithsonian Institution, Mt. St. Helens, WA Reports
Recent Mount St. Helens, WA Earthquake List

Alaska Volcano Observatoy
Smithsonian Institution, Chiginagak, Alaska(ACTIVE)

Smithsonian Institution, Volcanoes of the World
Smithsonian Institution, Adatara, Honshu, Japan
Smithsonian Institution, Sakura-Jima, Kyushu, Japan(ACTIVE)
Smithsonian Institution, ASo, Kyushu, Japan(2 killed 11/97)
Smithsonian Institution, Bezymianny, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia(ACTIVE)
Smithsonian Institution, Karymsky, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia(ACTIVE)
Smithsonian Institution, Kliuchevskoi, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia(ACTIVE)
Smithsonian Institution, Shiveluch, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia(ACTIVE)
Smithsonian Institution, Koryaksky, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia
Smithsonian Institution, Avachinsky, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia(ACTIVE)
Ruapehu & White Island Eruptions, New Zealand
Smithsonian Institution, Popocatepetl, Mexico(ACTIVE)
Smithsonian Institution, Pacaya, Guatemala(ACTIVE)
Smithsonian Institution, Arenal, Costa Rica(tremors)
Smithsonian Institution, Poas, Costa Rica(ACTIVE)
Smithsonian Institution, Turrialba, Costa Rica
Smithsonian Institution, Campi Flegrei, Italy(sulfates and temperature, up)
Smithsonian Institution, Soufriere Hills, Montserrat, West Indies(ACTIVE)
Smithsonian Institution, Huila, Colombia(rumbling)
Smithsonian Institution, Galeras, Colombia(rumbling)
Smithsonian Institution, Villarrica, Chile(rumbling)

Mammoth Earthquake List, by USGS (2M+)

COMPILED LIST OF MAMMOTH, CA AREA EARTHQUAKES: NOTE: Some Earthquakes appear on Southern CA or Nevada lists. All Earthquakes are recorded as the UTC time. FM = Full Moon NM = New Moon ------------------------------------------------------------ 97/11/12 - (11) 2+M 97/11/13 - (43) 2+M, (6) 3+M, (1) 4+M FM 97/11/14 - (30) 2+M 97/11/15 - (13) 2+M, (2) 3+M, () 4+M, (1) 5+M 97/11/16 - (14) 2+M 97/11/17 - (24) 2+M 97/11/18 - (63) 2+M, (1) 3+M 97/11/19 - (15) 2+M, (2) 3+M 97/11/20 - (7) 2+M 97/11/21 - (6) 2+M 97/11/22 - (158) 2+M, (19) 3+M, (4) 4+M 97/11/23 - (56) 2+M, (4) 3+M 97/11/24 - (37) 2+M, (3) 3+M 97/11/25 - (13) 2+M, (1) 3+M 97/11/26 - (15) 2+M 97/11/27 - (9) 2+M, (1) 3+M 97/11/28 - (13) 2+M NM 97/11/29 - (23) 2+M, (1) 3+M 97/11/30 - (57) 2+M, (5) 3+M, (1) 4+M 97/12/01 - (53) 2+M 97/12/02 - (19) 2+M 97/12/03 - (18) 2+M, (6) 3+M 97/12/04 - (17) 2+M, () 3+M, (1) 4+M 97/12/05 - (7) 2+M 97/12/06 - (11) 2+M, (2) 3+M 97/12/07 - (13) 2+M, (1) 3+M 97/12/08 - (10) 2+M, (1) 3+M 97/12/09 - (5) 2+M 97/12/10 - (12) 2+M, (1) 3+M 97/12/11 - (137) 1+M, (18) 2+M, (2) 3+M 97/12/12 - (68) 1+M, (3) 2+M FM 97/12/13 - (55) 1+M, (5) 2+M 97/12/14 - (63) 1+M, (16) 2+M, (2) 3+M 97/12/15 - (68) 1+M, (10) 2+M 97/12/16 - (37) 1+M, (4) 2+M 97/12/17 - (43) 1+M, (8) 2+M 97/12/18 - (82) 1+M, (7) 2+M, (1) 3+M 97/12/19 - (89) 1+M, (11) 2+M, (2) 3+M 97/12/20 - (73) 1+M, (8) 2+M 97/12/21 - (39) 1+M, (7) 2+M 97/12/22 - (54) 1+M, (6) 2+M, (1) 3+M 97/12/23 - (30) 1+M, (4) 2+M 97/12/24 - (57) 1+M, (9) 2+M 97/12/25 - (35) 1+M, (3) 2+M 97/12/26 - (78) 1+M, (16) 2+M, (2) 3+M 97/12/27 - (53) 1+M, (7) 2+M, 97/12/28 - (91) 1+M, (12) 2+M, (2) 3+M NM 97/12/29 - (124) 1+M, (27) 2+M, (1) 3+M, (1) 4+M 97/12/30 - (110) 1+M, (16) 2+M 97/12/31 - (164) 1+M, (69) 2+M, (5) 3+M, (1) 4+M 98/01/01 - (617) 1+M, (120) 2+M, (7) 3+M 98/01/02 - (241) 1+M, (29) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/01/03 - (219) 1+M, (24) 2+M, (4) 3+M 98/01/04 - (180) 1+M, (30) 2+M, (4) 3+M 98/01/05 - (157) 1+M, (17) 2+M, () 3+M, (1) 4+M 98/01/06 - (180) 1+M, (28) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/01/07 - (104) 1+M, (12) 2+M 98/01/08 - (112) 1+M, (14) 2+M 98/01/09 - (130) 1+M, (25) 2+M (3) 3+M 98/01/10 - (112) 1+M, (10) 2+M (1) 3+M 98/01/11 - (85) 1+M, (8) 2+M, (4) 3+M FM 98/01/12 - (74) 1+M, (5) 2+M 98/01/13 - (71) 1+M, (9) 2+M 98/01/14 - (56) 1+M, (9) 2+M 98/01/15 - (53) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/01/16 - (50) 1+M, (8) 2+M 98/01/17 - (41) 1+M, (3) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/01/18 - (49) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/01/19 - (20) 1+M, (6) 2+M 98/01/20 - (22) 1+M, (4) 2+M 98/01/21 - (26) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/01/22 - (29) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/01/23 - (19) 1+M, (3) 2+M 98/01/24 - (25) 1+M, (6) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/01/25 - (16) 1+M, (4) 2+M 98/01/26 - (21) 1+M, (6) 2+M 98/01/27 - (15) 1+M, (3) 2+M NM 98/01/28 - (16) 1+M, (3) 2+M 98/01/29 - (17) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/01/30 - (19) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/01/31 - (14) 1+M, (5) 2+M 98/02/01 - (18) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/02/02 - (16) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/02/03 - (22) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/02/04 - (26) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/02/05 - (11) 1+M, (2) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/02/06 - (24) 1+M, (4) 2+M 98/02/07 - (14) 1+M, (3) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/02/08 - (6) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/02/09 - (3) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/02/10 - (10) 1+M, (3) 2+M FM 98/02/11 - (8) 1+M 98/02/12 - (12) 1+M, (4) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/02/13 - (12) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/02/14 - (17) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/02/15 - (17) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/02/16 - (67) 1+M, (20) 2+M (1) 3+M 98/02/17 - (35) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/02/18 - (20) 1+M, (3) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/02/19 - (20) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/02/20 - (23) 1+M, (3) 2+M 98/02/21 - (18) 1+M, (4) 2+M 98/02/22 - (19) 1+M, (3) 2+M 98/02/23 - (6) 1+M, (1) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/02/24 - (8) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/02/25 - (25) 1+M, (1) 2+M, () 3+M, (1) 4+M NM 98/02/26 - (18) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/02/27 - (13) 1+M, (3) 2+M 98/02/28 - (14) 1+M, (3) 2+M 98/03/01 - (17) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/03/02 - (31) 1+M, (14) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/03/03 - (25) 1+M, (4) 2+M 98/03/04 - (18) 1+M, (5) 2+M 98/03/05 - (9) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/03/06 - (37) 1+M, (30) 2+M, (5) 3+M, (1) 4+M 98/03/07 - (96) 1+M, (37) 2+M, () 3+M, (1) 4+M 98/03/08 - (18) 1+M, (13) 2+M, (5) 3+M 98/03/09 - (15) 1+M, (14) 2+M 98/03/10 - (45) 1+M, (13) 2+M, (2) 3+M FM 98/03/11 - (21) 1+M, (6) 2+M 98/03/12 - (13) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/03/13 - (22) 1+M, (13) 2+M 98/03/14 - (24) 1+M, (4) 2+M 98/03/15 - (10) 1+M, (3) 2+M 98/03/16 - (108) 1+M, (32) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/03/17 - (16) 1+M, (7) 2+M 98/03/18 - (16) 1+M, (12) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/03/19 - (20) 1+M, (8) 2+M, (2) 3+M 98/03/20 - (9) 1+M, (13) 2+M, () 3+M, (1) 4+M 98/03/21 - (15) 1+M, (6) 2+M 98/03/22 - (12) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/03/23 - (7) 1+M, (9) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/03/24 - (9) 1+M, (5) 2+M 98/03/25 - (10) 1+M, (2) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/03/26 - (3) 1+M, (1) 2+M NM 98/03/27 - (5) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/03/28 - (4) 1+M, () 2+M 98/03/29 - (7) 1+M, () 2+M 98/03/30 - (5) 1+M, (6) 2+M 98/03/31 - (8) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/04/01 - (5) 1+M, (3) 2+M 98/04/02 - (4) 1+M, (6) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/04/03 - (4) 1+M, (18) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/04/04 - (9) 1+M, (22) 2+M, (3) 3+M 98/04/05 - (6) 1+M, (15) 2+M 98/04/06 - (9) 1+M, (9) 2+M 98/04/07 - (16) 1+M, (5) 2+M 98/04/08 - (9) 1+M, (3) 2+M 98/04/09 - (9) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/04/10 - (10) 1+M, (3) 2+M FM 98/04/11 - (13) 1+M, (5) 2+M 98/04/12 - (12) 1+M, () 2+M 98/04/13 - (10) 1+M, (2) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/04/14 - (24) 1+M, (12) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/04/15 - (17) 1+M, (4) 2+M 98/04/16 - (12) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/04/17 - (8) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/04/18 - (4) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/04/19 - (9) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/04/20 - (14) 1+M, (4) 2+M 98/04/21 - (7) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/04/22 - () 1+M, (2) 2+M, (3) 3+M 98/04/23 - (1) 1+M, (4) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/04/24 - (13) 1+M, (8) 2+M, () 3+M, (1) 4+M NM 98/04/25 - (5) 1+M, (3) 2+M 98/04/26 - (21) 1+M, (4) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/04/27 - (17) 1+M, (3) 2+M 98/04/28 - (12) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/04/29 - (9) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/04/30 - (16) 1+M, (5) 2+M 98/05/01 - (12) 1+M, (4) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/05/02 - (10) 1+M, (4) 2+M 98/05/03 - (7) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/05/04 - (5) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/05/05 - (7) 1+M, (3) 2+M 98/05/06 - (6) 1+M, (1) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/05/07 - (7) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/05/08 - (9) 1+M, (4) 2+M 98/05/09 - (12) 1+M, (4) 2+M 98/05/10 - (12) 1+M, (3) 2+M 98/05/11 - (5) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/05/12 - (11) 1+M, () 2+M 98/05/13 - (14) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/05/14 - (10) 1+M, (2) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/05/15 - (14) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/05/16 - (6) 1+M, () 2+M 98/05/17 - (14) 1+M, () 2+M 98/05/18 - (9) 1+M, (3) 2+M 98/05/19 - (15) 1+M, () 2+M 98/05/20 - (13) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/05/21 - (13) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/05/22 - (7) 1+M, () 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/05/23 - (14) 1+M, () 2+M 98/05/24 - (11) 1+M, (4) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/05/25 - (8) 1+M, () 2+M 98/05/26 - (2) 1+M, () 2+M LOST DATA... 98/06/02 - (5) 1+M 98/06/03 - (6) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/06/04 - (37) 1+M, (6) 2+M 98/06/05 - (8) 1+M 98/06/06 - (15) 1+M 98/06/07 - (4) 1+M, (2) 2+M 98/06/08 - (15) 1+M, () 2+M, () 3+M, (1) 4+M 98/06/09 - (252) 1+M, (47) 2+M, (5) 3+M, () 4+M, (1) 5+M 98/06/10 - (138) 1+M, (39) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/06/11 - (129) 1+M, (17) 2+M, (2) 3+M, (1) 4M's 98/06/12 - (64) 1+M, (11) 2+M 98/06/13 - (25) 1+M, (4) 2+M 98/06/14 - (28) 1+M, (15) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/06/15 - (29) 1+M, (11) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/06/16 - (27) 1+M, (5) 2+M 98/06/17 - (22) 1+M, (5) 2+M 98/06/18 - (26) 1+M, (5) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/06/19 - (15) 1+M, (1) 2+M 98/06/20 - (22) 1+M, (6) 2+M 98/06/21 - (23) 1+M, (9) 2+M, () 3+M, (1) 4+M 98/06/22 - (15) 1+M, (1) 2+M, (2) 3+M 98/06/23 - (10) 1+M, (5) 2+M 98/06/24 - (16) 1+M, (6) 2+M, () 3+M, (1) 4+M 98/06/25 - (19) 1+M, (2) 2+M, (2) 3+M 98/06/26 - (48) 1+M, (11) 2+M, () 3+M, (1) 4+M 98/06/27 (22) 1+M, (4) 2+M, (1) 3+M 98/06/28 (15) 1+M, (3) 2+M 98/06/29 (2) 1+M, () 2+M

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