Earthquake Prediction
and
Public Policy
Excerpt
Table slightly modified from Table 1, p.21
National Academy of Sciences, 1972
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REPRESENTATIVE EARTHQUAKES (United States)
Earthquake and Year Richter
Magn.
Mod.
Mercalli
Inten.
Fault Length Deaths Damage
millions$
Syzygy
(days)
San Fernando, CA
Feb 9, 1971
6.4 X 8 miles 65 50 FMe + 0
Southern Alaska
Mar 27, 1964
8.4 X 450 miles 125 10 FM + 0
Hebgen Lake, Montana
Aug 17, 1959
7.1 X 14 miles 28 11 FM + 0
Kern County, CA
Jul 21, 1952
7.7 XI 14 miles 12 60 NM + 0
Long Beach, CA
Mar 10, 1952
6.3 X undersea 102 50 FMe + 0
Last column provided by Jim Berkland. Note that all five of these "representative quakes" struck on the very day of a syzygy and two of them accompanied lunar eclipses, which are perfect syzygies. Statistically, there is one chance in 15 that any given earthquake will coincide with a syzygy. For all five to coincide, the chances are 1/15(to the 5th power) = 1:759,000. Coincidence?

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